The expert expressed this assumption.

Coronavirus Third Wave - The new study dealt with UK data, vaccination, and new variants of the coronavirus. As in January, there were 60,000 cases and 1,200 deaths every day. But during the fourth wave, this figure dropped to 21,000 and only 14 deaths occurred.

New Delhi: A scientist from a government committee related to the modeling of the Covid-19 pandemic has said that if the covid protocol, that is, the corona guidelines, are not followed correctly, then the third wave of coronavirus (Coronavirus Third Wave). It can reach its peak between October -November. However, during this time you can see half of the daily cases reported in the second wave.

The role of the new strain will be

Manindra Aggarwal, working on Kovid-19's 'formula model' or mathematical estimate, said that if a new strain of the virus is born, then in such a situation, the third wave can spread more quickly. The Department of Science and Technology had formed the committee last year to forecast the increase in coronavirus infection cases using mathematical models.

In addition to IIT Kanpur scientist Agrawal, the committee also includes IIT Hyderabad scientist M Vidyasagar and Deputy Chief of the Integrated Defense (Medical) General Staff, Lieutenant General Madhuri Kanitkar.

There was criticism for guessing wrong

This committee also faced criticism for not predicting the exact nature of Kovid's second wave. Aggarwal said the loss of immunity, the impact of vaccination, and the possibility of a more dangerous nature have all been taken into account when forecasting the third wave. As was not done during the modeling of the second wave. She said the detailed report will also be released soon.

She said: 'We have created three scenarios. One is "optimistic". In this, we believe that life returns to normal in August and there will be no resurgence of the virus. The second is "intermediate".

Assessment of the 'pessimistic' situation

Agarwal further said: 'Our third approach is' pessimistic'. It is a different concept than in-between. For example, let's say a new 25% more infectious strain spreads in August (not Delta Plus, which is no more contagious than Delta). In this situation, the second wave is likely to stabilize in mid-August. That is, the third wave can reach its peak between October and November.

2 lakh of new cases can arrive daily

The scientist said that in the case of a "pessimistic" scenario, in the third wave, the number of cases in the country could increase between 1.50,000 to 2,00,000 daily. He said this figure is half of the cases reported during the peak of the second wave in the first half of May when hospitals were flooded with patients and thousands of people died.

What vaccine will save lives?

He said that as the vaccination campaign progresses, the possibility of a third or fourth wave will be reduced. Aggarwal said that in an optimistic scenario, daily cases can be 50,000 to 100,000. At the same time, Vidyasagar said that hospitalization cases can be reduced during the third wave.